Sunday 1 September 2013

Global Warming



An increase in the near surface temperature of the Earth. Global warming has occurred in the distant past as the result of natural influences, but the term is most often used to refer to the warming predicted to occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Scientists generally agree that the Earth's surface has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past 140 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the Earth's surface temperature and that increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols have led to relative cooling in some regions, generally over and downwind of heavily industrialized areas.
Definition of Greenhouse Gas:  A gas, like CO2, which traps the sun's heat.
Human causes:  Carbon dioxide (CO2), e.g. exhaust from cars and power plants.
Natural causes:  Some claim the sun is getting hotter (it's not). Cause unknown.
 
It's virtually impossible that none of it is caused by people, because we know we have increased CO2 in the air from 280 to 380 ppm, and we know CO2 has a warming effect. But there's still a very small chance that the effect is tiny. But there is no evidence that it's tiny.

 In 1896 Svante Arrhenius (1903 Nobel Prize in Chemistry) predicted thedecrease in CO2 needed to cause past ice ages. He wasn't far off, and it is not a large decrease. This helped confirm the 1859 prediction that human-producedincreases in CO2 would cause just the reverse: global warming.

What's to be done? A global problem requires a global solution, and that requires countries to cooperate. The science of games and strategies explains what leads to cooperation and what doesn't. The basic situation—what each country does helps that country very little—is a classic game call the prisoner's dilemma. And the prisoners do not cooperate. Unfortunately the Kyoto approach actually makes the problem worse. But a better design leads to cooperation, as explained in the Green Fund Game.

What Causes Global Warming (climate change), human activity or the sun? The final answer is not in, but you can see the results so far. (1) Exhaust is clearly the source of CO2. (2) Everyone now agrees the earth is warming. (3) Decide for yourself if warming is better explained by CO2, or the sun's heat.

The Effects of Global Warming. We can see the long-term effects coming in the melting of polar ice and glaciers. But apowerful trend in Atlantic hurricane data indicates we can already see the impact. Katrina was partly the result of a normal weather cycle, but that cannot explain away stronger hurricanes world wide.
It's too late for that, but we can slow it down and lessen its effects. CO2 does not last as long in the air as was once thought, so the big problem is slowing human use of fossil energy, especially coal. (Especially since CO2 goes into the ocean and destroys coral reefs.)

Stoft  2005 09 hurricane global warming-S
-CO2-predicted-measured-S


-CO2-Temp-S

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